A cup of coffee often feels like a given. You brew coffee in the morning, drink an espresso after lunch, or grab a cappuccino on the go. But behind that daily habit lies a vulnerable chain. Coffee doesn't just grow anywhere. The plant needs the right temperature, enough rain, suitable soil, altitude, and shade.
Climate change is disrupting that balance. Extreme heat, drought, and unpredictable rain are becoming more frequent in coffee-growing regions. This affects the plant, the harvest, the taste, and ultimately, the price you pay.
For farmers, this isn't a future scenario, but something that is already happening. A failed bloom, a dry spell, or a lower-yielding harvest directly impacts their income. For coffee drinkers, this usually only becomes apparent later. For example, because coffee becomes more expensive, certain origins become less available, or flavors become less consistent.
At Bunafide, we want to make coffee understandable. Not through big words or perfect promises, but by honestly explaining what's behind your cup of coffee. Climate change is part of that.
Why Coffee is Vulnerable to Climate Change
Coffee is an agricultural product. That sounds logical, but it's easy to forget once coffee is in a bag, pod, or cup. The quality begins with the coffee plant. This plant reacts strongly to temperature, precipitation, altitude, soil, and shade.
Arabica, in particular, is sensitive. This coffee species often grows at higher altitudes and requires rather specific conditions. If it gets too hot, the plant can experience stress. If rain comes too late or falls too heavily, it can disrupt flowering and fruit development. If plants weaken, the risk of diseases and pests also increases.
That's what makes climate change so important for coffee. It's not just about whether there's enough coffee. It's also about the quality of the bean, the stability of the harvest, and the taste that ultimately ends up in your cup. Research on coffee and climate shows that higher temperatures and changing rainfall patterns can affect yield, quality, and flavor profiles, especially for Arabica.
Heat Makes Coffee Cultivation Less Predictable
Coffee plants need warmth, but too much heat works against the plant. When temperatures too often exceed the optimal limit, it can disrupt the flowering, growth, and ripening of coffee cherries. The plant becomes stressed, which can lead to lower yields or reduced quality.
Climate Central analyzed the impact of warming on coffee-producing countries. According to that analysis, the five largest coffee-producing countries, together accounting for approximately 75% of global coffee production, experienced an average of 57 additional days per year with heat harmful to coffee. All 25 coffee-producing countries studied experienced more such heat in the past five years.
Such figures sound large, but the consequences are very practical. Farmers more often have to deal with plants that recover less well, cherries that ripen faster, and harvests that become less predictable. And if a harvest yields less, that has an impact throughout the entire chain.
Drought and Unpredictable Rain Disrupt the Harvest
Coffee needs rain at the right time. Rain helps with flowering and with the development of coffee cherries. But too little rain can dry out plants, while too much rain can damage flowers or cherries. Heavy rain can also wash away soil, making plantations more vulnerable.
In recent years, bad weather conditions in major coffee-producing countries have been cited more often as a cause of price pressure. For example, the FAO reported that global coffee prices rose by 38.8% in 2024 compared to the average of the previous year, mainly due to unfavorable weather conditions in key producing countries. This included drought in Vietnam, lower production in Indonesia, and unfavorable weather in Brazil.
For consumers, this may seem far away, but Brazil and Vietnam play an enormous role in the global coffee market. If harvests there fail, it can affect the availability and price of coffee worldwide.
Why Arabica is Extra Vulnerable
Arabica is known for its refined taste. Many people choose Arabica for its soft, fruity, floral, or chocolatey notes. But that refinement also has a downside: Arabica is more sensitive to climate change than Robusta.
Arabica often grows in higher places where temperature, moisture, and shade must be well-balanced. If these areas become warmer, farmers can sometimes move to higher altitudes. But that is not always possible. Higher-lying land is not always available, may already be in use, or may be part of fragile natural areas.
As a result, Arabica does not become impossible overnight, but it does become riskier. Cultivation requires more attention, more adaptation, and possibly more investment. This can affect price, availability, and flavor stability.
Robusta is Stronger, but Not a Simple Solution
Robusta is often seen as the stronger coffee species. The plant is more resistant to heat and grows more easily in lower areas. That's why Robusta sometimes sounds like a logical solution for a warmer climate.
However, it's not that simple. Robusta is more robust than Arabica, but not invulnerable. Extreme drought, heat, and changing rainfall patterns can also affect Robusta harvests. Moreover, Robusta is widely used in blends, instant coffee, and more accessible coffees. Problems in Robusta regions therefore quickly affect a large part of the coffee market.
The answer to climate change is therefore not simply switching from Arabica to Robusta. The entire coffee chain needs to become more resilient. This means better farming methods, more knowledge sharing, fair prices, and more insight into where coffee comes from.
Climate Change Can Also Alter the Taste
Coffee flavor is created by many factors simultaneously: variety, origin, soil, altitude, processing, roasting, and brewing method. Climate plays a role throughout. If temperatures rise or rainfall patterns change, it can affect the development of the coffee cherry and bean.
When cherries ripen faster due to heat, they may have less time to develop complex flavors. Drought can cause stress in the plant. Diseases and pests can affect quality. As a result, coffee can become less distinct, less balanced, or less consistent.
This doesn't mean that every coffee suddenly tastes worse. Good farmers and roasters can compensate for a lot. They can process differently, adjust blends, or select better. But it requires more work and more knowledge to continue delivering the same quality.
For coffee drinkers, this becomes particularly noticeable with single-origin coffees or coffees with a distinct flavor profile. A coffee that is fruity and vibrant one year may taste less bright in another year if growing conditions change significantly.
Farmers Often Bear the Greatest Risk
Climate change affects farmers first. If a harvest is disappointing, they feel it directly in their income. If plants get sick, they have to invest in recovery. If it gets drier, extra measures may be needed for water management. If it gets warmer, shade or other planting may become more important.
Small-scale farmers, in particular, often have little room to make such investments. They do not always have access to financing, technical support, or reliable market information. As a result, the greatest risk often falls on those least able to cope.
This also makes climate change a question of fairness. Who pays for the necessary adaptation? Who bears the risk if the harvest fails? And how much of the price you pay goes to the people who grow the coffee?
Bunafide is built on the idea that coffee needs to be more transparent. The brand wants to provide insight into origin, costs, and impact, and connect farmers and consumers more directly.
Read also: What does fair coffee mean?
Shade and Biodiversity are Becoming More Important
One way to make coffee plantations more resilient is to work with more shade and biodiversity. Shade trees can help limit temperature peaks, retain soil moisture, and keep the soil healthier. They can also contribute to a stronger ecosystem around the plantation.
This type of agriculture is often called agroforestry: a system in which trees and crops are deliberately combined. For coffee, this can be interesting, because the plant can naturally grow well in sheltered conditions.
However, this is not a simple switch you can flip. Planting shade trees takes time. It can affect the way of working and sometimes temporarily also the yield. Farmers need knowledge, space, and financial security to take such steps properly.
That is why climate-resilient coffee is not just a technical agricultural problem. It is also an economic problem. Without fair prices and long-term cooperation, sustainability remains difficult for many farmers to achieve.
Deforestation and Coffee are Increasingly Linked
Climate change and deforestation are strongly linked. Forests help to store CO₂, protect the soil, and keep local ecosystems more stable. When forests disappear, the landscape becomes more vulnerable to heat, drought, and erosion.
At the same time, climate change can put pressure on existing coffee-growing areas. If some regions become less suitable, there is a risk that agriculture will shift to new areas. This, in turn, can put pressure on forests and nature.
That is why more regulations are being introduced in Europe regarding deforestation-free products. The European Deforestation Regulation, also known as EUDR, is intended to prevent products on the EU market from contributing to deforestation and forest degradation. Coffee falls under these product groups.
The goal is logical, but the implementation is complicated. Companies must be able to better demonstrate where coffee comes from. For small farmers, this can be difficult, as they do not always have digital systems, clear land registration, or technical support.
Read also: From Certification to Direct Sourcing: Bunafide's Journey
What Do You Notice as a Coffee Drinker?
As a coffee drinker, you usually notice climate change indirectly. It doesn't start at your coffee machine, but much earlier in the chain. However, it can ultimately affect what you buy and drink.
Coffee can become more expensive when harvests fail, production becomes riskier, or farmers and roasters have to invest more to maintain quality. The taste can also become less consistent, because weather conditions vary more strongly per season. Some origins may become scarcer, causing roasters to sometimes have to use different beans or adjusted blends.
In addition, transparency becomes more important. If coffee-growing regions are under pressure, you want to know more about where coffee comes from, how the chain is organized, and who takes responsibility. Not because every consumer needs to know all the details, but because trust starts with clarity.
What Can the Coffee World Do?
The coffee world cannot solve climate change all at once. However, there are clear steps that can strengthen the chain.
More direct cooperation with farmers helps brands and roasters better understand what is happening on plantations. This allows pricing agreements, support, and quality choices to better align with reality. Investments in climate adaptation are also needed. Think of shade trees, soil improvement, water management, stronger varieties, and better knowledge sharing.
In addition, traceability is becoming increasingly important. If you know where coffee comes from, you can better measure, improve, and take responsibility. But traceability only truly has value if there is also a fairer look at price and risk. Farmers need financial room to invest in the future of their plantation.
For Bunafide, this is precisely why transparency is so important. Not as a marketing claim, but as a way to gradually better understand what is happening in the chain. Bunafide's brand story revolves around honestly showing where we stand, what we don't yet know, and how we want to improve.
What Can You Do as a Coffee Drinker?
As a consumer, you don't have to change the coffee chain alone. But you can make more conscious choices. That starts with looking at brands that are clear about origin, composition, and their way of working.
It also helps not to just look for the lowest price. Cheap coffee is not automatically bad, but a low price often says little about what the farmer receives, how the chain is structured, and whether there is room for sustainability.
In addition, you can get more out of your coffee by taking better care of it at home. Store coffee beans airtight, dark, and dry. Grind only what you need. Choose a brewing method that suits your use. This way you waste less and get more flavor from what you buy.
What Does This Mean for Bunafide?
For Bunafide, climate change is not a separate sustainability theme. It touches the core of what the brand wants to achieve: a coffee chain that is clearer, fairer, and easier to understand.
Currently, Bunafide works through Dutch roasters with certifications such as Rainforest Alliance, Fairtrade, organic, and Climate Activator. That is the current phase. The ambition is to gradually grow towards own sourcing, with more direct relationships with farmers and more insight into costs and impact.
Especially with climate change, such an approach becomes important. If coffee-growing regions are under pressure, you want to better understand who grows the coffee, what challenges exist, and how you can improve together. This cannot be achieved with vague claims, but with openness, patience, and concrete steps.
Bunafide does not want to pretend that the coffee chain is already perfect. We are precisely in a phase where we want to learn, share, and improve more and more. That makes climate change not a distant story for us, but a part of the journey towards fairer coffee.
Frequently Asked Questions About Climate Change and Coffee
What does climate change do to coffee?
Climate change leads to more heat, drought, unpredictable rain, and a greater risk of diseases and pests. As a result, the yield, quality, availability, and price of coffee can change.
Will coffee become more expensive due to climate change?
Climate change is an important factor behind price pressure, but not the only one. Transport, energy, global demand, and regulations also play a role. Poor harvests due to heat or drought can directly contribute to higher prices.
Which coffee species is most vulnerable?
Arabica is usually more vulnerable than Robusta. Arabica often grows at higher altitudes and requires more specific conditions. Robusta is stronger, but even this species can be affected by extreme heat and drought.
Does the taste of coffee change due to climate change?
It can. Heat, drought, and faster ripening can affect the development of the bean. As a result, aroma, freshness, complexity, and balance can change.
Will coffee disappear due to climate change?
Coffee will not simply disappear. However, some areas may become less suitable for coffee cultivation. Production may shift, become more expensive, or require more adaptation.
Why are small coffee farmers particularly vulnerable?
Small-scale farmers often have less financial room to invest in irrigation, shade, soil improvement, or new plant varieties. They bear a lot of risk, while often receiving only a small part of the final selling price.
Do certifications help against climate change?
Certifications can help to maintain certain standards, but they do not completely solve the problem. Direct cooperation, better prices, traceability, and concrete climate adaptation remain important.
What can I do as a consumer?
Choose more consciously. Look at origin, transparency, and the story behind the coffee. Store your coffee well, waste less, and support brands that are open about their supply chain.
Conclusion: Climate Change is Closer to Your Cup of Coffee Than You Think
Climate change doesn't alter coffee overnight, but step by step. Heat, drought, and extreme weather make harvests less predictable. Arabica comes under extra pressure. Robusta is stronger, but not a simple solution. Farmers have to adapt, while they often have the least financial room to do so.
For you as a coffee drinker, this will become visible in terms of price, availability, taste, and transparency. Coffee remains coffee, but the circumstances behind your cup are changing.
That's why it's important to look beyond just the packaging or the price. Where does the coffee come from? Who grows it? What risks are there in the chain? And what steps are being taken to make coffee fairer and more future-proof?
At Bunafide, we believe that coffee doesn't have to be perfect to get better. But we must remain honest about what's happening. Because only when you know what's changing can you make more conscious choices for what can be improved.
