Why is coffee getting more expensive? The real reasons

For many people, coffee is a daily ritual. A cup in the morning. An espresso after lunch. A cappuccino on the go. Precisely because coffee feels so normal, a price increase stands out even more.

And that's happening. Not just in coffee shops, but also in supermarkets, online stores, and for business coffee.

But why is coffee actually getting more expensive?

The short answer: because the coffee supply chain is under pressure. Due to climate change, failed harvests, higher transport costs, global demand, and new regulations regarding origin and deforestation. At the same time, there's growing attention to fair payment for farmers. And that also impacts the price.

At Bunafide, we believe that coffee doesn't need to be made out to be more than it is. That's why, in this blog, we explain what's really happening. Not to justify a higher price, but to show what's behind your cup of coffee.

Coffee prices are not rising due to a single cause

The price of coffee is not determined by one simple factor. It's not a matter of "the farmer is asking for more" or "brands want more margin."

The coffee market is global. Beans are grown in countries around the equator, shipped to other parts of the world, roasted, packaged, and ultimately sold to consumers or businesses.

If something goes wrong anywhere in that chain, it can affect the price.

Think of:

Poor harvests.
Drought or extreme heat.
Reduced exports from major coffee-producing countries.
Higher transport and energy costs.
Stricter traceability rules.
Growing global demand for coffee.

The FAO previously pointed to limited exports from Vietnam, lower production in Indonesia, and bad weather in Brazilian coffee regions as key causes behind higher coffee prices.

In short: coffee is becoming more expensive because the entire chain is becoming more vulnerable and costly.

1. Climate change severely impacts coffee-growing regions

Coffee doesn't just grow anywhere. Most coffee comes from regions around the equator, also known as the coffee belt. There, temperature, altitude, rainfall, and soil are crucial for the quality of the harvest.

But that balance is under pressure.

Coffee plants are sensitive to extreme heat, drought, and unpredictable rain. Arabica, in particular, is vulnerable. If it gets too hot or doesn't rain enough at the wrong time, the harvest can suffer. Less harvest means less supply. And less supply often leads to higher prices.

A recent analysis showed that traditional coffee-producing countries are experiencing an increasing number of days that are too hot for optimal coffee cultivation. In the top five coffee-producing countries, there were an average of 57 additional days per year above 30 degrees Celsius between 2021 and 2025.

2. Poor harvests in major coffee-producing countries have a direct effect

Brazil and Vietnam are incredibly important to the global coffee market. Brazil is especially important for Arabica. Vietnam is the largest producer of Robusta. If harvests there fail, the entire market feels it.

In recent years, both countries have faced severe weather conditions. Think of drought, heat, frost, or excessive rainfall. Such conditions can significantly affect the quality and quantity of coffee beans.

According to reports on the coffee market, Brazil and Vietnam experienced extreme weather conditions that put pressure on bean availability. It was also reported that Vietnamese exports in December were significantly lower than the previous year.

This impacts almost everything: beans, ground coffee, pods, blends, and coffee for hospitality or offices.

3. Arabica and Robusta are both affected

It is sometimes thought that price increases only apply to luxury Arabica coffee. But that is too simplistic.

Robusta has also become more expensive. And that is important, because Robusta is widely used in blends, instant coffee, and more accessible coffees. If Robusta prices rise, it affects a large part of the coffee market.

Arabica and Robusta each have their own dynamics. Arabica is more sensitive to climate and often grows at higher altitudes. Robusta is a hardier plant, but even that market is affected by drought, demand, and export pressure.

If both types become more expensive simultaneously, it becomes more difficult for roasters to absorb price increases without raising the selling price. That's why you see price pressure in almost all segments: from specialty coffee to supermarket blends.

4. Global demand for coffee remains high

Coffee is not a product that people easily give up completely. Even if prices rise, many people continue to drink coffee.

That makes coffee different from some luxury products. People may buy a little more consciously, but their daily cup often remains part of their routine.

At the same time, demand is growing in various parts of the world. Not only in Europe and the United States, but also in emerging coffee markets. Increased demand with vulnerable supply creates additional pressure on prices.

The coffee market is therefore sensitive to tension. If harvests fail while demand remains strong, prices rise more quickly.

For consumers, that sometimes feels strange. The coffee in your cup seems the same. But behind that cup, the market has changed.

5. Transport, energy, and packaging have also become more expensive

The price of coffee doesn't just consist of the bean.

Before coffee reaches your home or office, a lot has to happen. Beans are processed, transported, stored, roasted, packaged, and shipped. All these steps cost money.

If fuel, sea freight, energy, labor, or packaging materials become more expensive, the cost price of coffee also increases.

Roasteries, in particular, feel this. Roasting coffee costs energy. Packaging costs material. Shipping costs transport. And if these costs increase, it ultimately ends up somewhere in the chain.

That doesn't mean every price increase is automatically justified. But it does mean that the selling price of coffee consists of more than just the price a farmer gets for green coffee.

6. New regulations make coffee more transparent, but also more complex

Europe is working on stricter regulations regarding deforestation-free products. Coffee is also covered by this. Companies must be able to demonstrate that their coffee does not come from land that has recently been deforested.

The goal is good: less deforestation and more responsibility in the chain. But the implementation also demands a lot from farmers, traders, roasters, and brands. Think of traceability, documentation, geolocation, and additional controls.

The European Commission describes the deforestation regulation as part of the approach to prevent products on the EU market from contributing to deforestation and forest degradation. Coffee is one of the product groups covered by these rules.

For small farmers, this can be complicated. They do not always have the resources, technology, or administration to easily meet new requirements. This can lead to additional costs in the chain.

More transparency is needed. But transparency is not free. That is precisely why Bunafide is working step by step towards more openness. We do not promise a perfect coffee chain. We promise to honestly show where we stand and where we are working towards.

7. Fair payment to farmers requires a different perspective on price

This is perhaps the most important point.

Cheap coffee seems attractive. But the question is: who ultimately pays the real price?

In the coffee world, farmers often receive a small portion of what consumers ultimately pay. Between the farmer and the cup, there are many links: traders, exporters, importers, roasters, packers, retailers, and platforms.

If coffee is sold too cheaply for years, the pressure often falls on the people at the beginning of the chain. Precisely on the farmers who face the most risk.

Fair coffee therefore does not just mean "sustainable packaging" or "nice branding." It also concerns whether farmers earn enough to continue investing in quality, harvest, soil, family, and future.

At Bunafide, this is an important principle. The brand is built around complete transparency regarding origin, costs, and impact, with the aim of connecting farmers and consumers more directly.

Why cheap coffee often doesn't tell the whole story

Cheap coffee isn't automatically bad. But cheap coffee often doesn't tell the whole story.

If a bag of coffee is very cheap, you can ask yourself a few questions:

What is the farmer paid?
How many links are there between the farmer and the consumer?
Is the origin clear?
Are the costs in the supply chain transparent?
Is there investment in quality and sustainability?
Who bears the risk if harvests fail?

Not every consumer needs to be concerned with these questions daily. But as a brand, you must dare to ask them. At Bunafide, it's not about making people feel guilty about coffee. It's about insight. Because only when you know how the chain works can you make more conscious choices. That's also the core of the brand story: Bunafide doesn't want to pretend everything is already perfect, but to show what steps are being taken towards a fairer coffee chain.

Does more expensive coffee always mean fairer coffee?

No. And that's important. A higher price doesn't automatically mean the farmer gets more. A brand can be more expensive due to branding, marketing, packaging, or margins, without the chain being fairer. Therefore, a higher selling price alone is not enough.

Fair coffee requires transparency. Where does the coffee come from? Who earns what? What links are there in between? What is being done to improve the chain?

This is precisely where Bunafide wants to distinguish itself. Not by claiming that everything is already good, but by openly sharing the journey.

According to its growth plan, Bunafide is working in phases: currently through Dutch roasters with certifications such as Rainforest Alliance, Fairtrade, organic, and Climate Activator, then moving towards its own sourcing, direct purchasing, more cost insight, and ultimately long-term projects with farmers and communities.

That is fairer than a perfect claim. Because you don't change the coffee chain in a single day.

What do you notice as a coffee drinker?

When coffee becomes more expensive, you notice it in various ways.

A bag of coffee beans might get more expensive.
Ground coffee might increase in price.
Pods could cost more.
Coffee at the office becomes more expensive.
Coffee shops raise their prices.
Brands sometimes adjust packaging content or product range.

But you don't just notice it in price. Sometimes the taste or composition of coffee also changes. Brands may look for different blends to control costs. That doesn't have to be wrong, but it does show how strongly price and recipe are connected.

That's why it's important for brands to keep communicating clearly. Especially if compositions, origins, or prices change.

What can you do yourself when coffee gets more expensive?

You don't have to immediately drink less coffee. But you can make more conscious choices.

Choose coffee that suits your use

Do you mainly drink coffee at home? Then coffee beans are often a good choice. You get a lot of flavor from your coffee and have control over grinding and brewing methods.

Do you mostly drink coffee quickly on the go? Then pods can be convenient.
Do you drink filter coffee? Then ground coffee is practical.

Store your coffee properly

Poor storage leads to loss of flavor. And if coffee becomes more expensive, you want to get as much as possible out of each bag.

Store coffee beans airtight, in a dark, dry place, and at room temperature.

Focus on quality, not just price

The cheapest coffee is not always the best choice. But the most expensive coffee is also not automatically the fairest.

Look at taste, origin, transparency, and the story behind the brand.

Make a conscious choice for the coffee moment

Not every coffee has to be the same. Perhaps you want an accessible daily coffee for weekdays and a more distinctive coffee for the weekend.

What does this mean for Bunafide?

For Bunafide, the rising coffee price is not an isolated market story. It touches precisely on the core of the brand. Coffee should be delicious. But coffee should also become fairer. And fairer means daring to look at what lies behind the price. Bunafide is still in a growth phase. The current phase revolves around purchasing through Dutch roasters with certifications such as Rainforest Alliance, Fairtrade, organic, and Climate Activator. The ambition is then to grow further towards self-sourcing, direct relationships with farmers, and more transparency in costs.

And that is precisely why it is important to be honest about price. Good coffee has a real cost price. Especially if you ultimately want to be less dependent on opaque chains.

Frequently asked questions about rising coffee prices

Why is coffee becoming more expensive?

Coffee is becoming more expensive due to a combination of climate change, disappointing harvests, higher transport costs, rising demand, stricter regulations, and increased pressure for transparency in the supply chain.

Is the price increase mainly due to climate change?

Climate change is a significant factor, but not the only one. Drought, heat, and extreme rain can affect harvests. Additionally, transport, energy, demand, and regulations also play a role.

Why do Brazil and Vietnam have so much influence on coffee prices?

Brazil is the largest producer of Arabica and Vietnam is the largest producer of Robusta. If harvests or exports in these countries fall short, it directly affects the global market.

Will coffee become even more expensive?

That cannot be said with certainty. Coffee prices can fluctuate sharply. However, the market remains sensitive to weather, climate, harvests, stock, and global demand. The FAO previously warned that export prices could rise further if major coffee regions face significant supply problems again.

Does more expensive coffee mean farmers earn more?

Not automatically. A higher consumer price only means something for farmers if the chain is structured more fairly and more value flows back to the origin.

Is cheap coffee bad?

Not always. But with cheap coffee, it's often harder to see who earns what in the chain. That's why transparency is important.

Why is fair trade coffee often more expensive?

Because fair trade coffee demands more from the chain: better payment, better traceability, more attention to quality, and sometimes smaller volumes or more direct cooperation.

What can I do to buy coffee more consciously?

Don't just look at price, but also at origin, taste, certifications, transparency, and the story behind the brand. Choose coffee that suits your taste and usage.

Conclusion: coffee is getting more expensive because the chain is under pressure

Coffee is getting more expensive due to multiple causes at once. Climate change is affecting coffee-growing regions. Harvests are more often disappointing. Transport and energy cost more. New regulations demand greater traceability. And meanwhile, global demand for coffee remains high.

If we want farmers to be paid more fairly and the chain to become more transparent, we need to look at coffee prices differently. Not every price increase is automatically fair. But extremely cheap coffee often doesn't tell the whole story either.

At Bunafide, we believe coffee should be clearer. Where does your coffee come from? What's behind it? And what steps can we take to improve the chain?

We are not yet where we want to be. But we are on our way.

And that story is precisely what belongs to a fair cup of coffee.

Why is coffee getting more expensive?